Overall, analysts expect about 63.5 million iPads to be sold this year worldwide. Tech analysts – Gartner, IDC, etc. – were slightly (5%) more bullish than the bank analysts.
63.5 million iPads is up 50% from 42.3 million iPads sold in 2011, which is the average of publicly-announced analyst figures from TrendForce, Strategy Analytics, DisplaySearch, Merrill Lynch and others.
Raging Bull of this crowd? Morgan Stanley‘s Katy Huberty, who sees as many as 81 million iPads sold this year. Second place goes to IHS’s Rhoda Alexander with 75.3 million.
Dour Bear? Barclay’s Ben Reitzes, whose most recent forecast I could find was at 51 million. Here they are again, in columnar form:
For the total global tablet market, Peter Misek of Jeffries stands out as the Raging Bull, forecasting 158 million shipments. RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky is the Big Bear, seeing about 84 million tablets sold this year.
The average prediction of 109 million is up 68% from 2011′s average of 64.8 million tablets sold globally.
Here it is in graphical form. Overall, analysts expect iPads to still control 58% of the tablet market this year.
And what of the long-term? Granted, the number of forecasts for years past 2013 is much smaller; in some cases, it’s a lone firm or analyst putting him or herself out there.
But I’ve still built out a table and stacked bar chart that includes all of the forecasts that I could find. Analysts expect the number of iPads sold to nearly quadruple from 2011 to 2016, and the number of other tablets – Android, Windows 8, RIM – to increase nearly sevenfold. iPads will still hold a tenuous lead over non-Apple tablets by 2016.
And, in stacked bar chart form.