The world changes faster than we think. If you ask people to imagine what the world will be like in 50 years, they will base their predictions on developments that have occurred over the previous half-century. But in the future, the same degree of change will require only a fraction of the 50 years it used to take.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil thinks this way: The future begins with variations so minimal that we hardly notice them, but the many small steps eventually add up. Our everyday lives change slowly but surely along with the world around us. Only in retrospect do we see how great the steps have actually been, and how much greater they will be.
It took the radio 38 years to reach 50 million people worldwide. Television needed just 13 years to do the same. The Internet passed this milestone in three years, and the iPod in just two. Changes are taking place faster, and it’s not remotely possible to predict them. When the first cellular text message was sent in 1992, who would have thought that the BlackBerry would hit the market in 1999? Or that Apple’s iPhone would revolutionize the use of mobile communication networks and mobile devices just eight years later?
Free download: The current article of SAP SPECTRUM Issue 3 | 2010.