{"id":4347,"date":"2022-11-03T08:00:24","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T07:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.sap.com\/denmark\/?p=4347"},"modified":"2024-08-01T17:56:37","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T15:56:37","slug":"verdens-gang-og-andre-exaflops","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.sap.com\/denmark\/2022\/11\/verdens-gang-og-andre-exaflops\/","title":{"rendered":"Verdens gang og andre exaflops"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00e5r verden er af lave, m\u00e5 man s\u00f8ge tr\u00f8st i den teknologiske udvikling. Eksempelvis n\u00e5r supercomputere bryder exaflops-lydmuren. Men selv her sniger truende skyer sig ind i horisonten.<\/p>\n

Mit f\u00f8rste job som ingeni\u00f8r tilbage i 90\u2019erne var hos DMI, hvor jeg udviklede software til leverance af vejrudsigter. I dag er vejrudsigter som bekendt noget helt helt andet end dengang. Vi f\u00e5r dugfriske radar-facts blandet med forudsigelser og p\u00e5 den m\u00e5de en knivskarp prognose for de n\u00e6ste timer i vores egen geografi. Det handler om data. Data i l\u00e6ssevis og processorkraft til at knuse transaktioner.<\/p>\n

Vejrudsigternes kvalitet afspejler en helt konkret teknologisk udvikling, for de meteorologiske institutter er blandt de f\u00f8rste og st\u00f8rste brugere af supercomputere. Teknologi i en god sags tjeneste. Ja tak!<\/p>\n

En milliard milliarder transaktioner i sekundet<\/strong><\/h2>\n

DMI lovede i en pressemeddelelse fra sidste \u00e5r endog endnu bedre vejrudsigter i 2023, fordi Danmark er blandt fire nationer, som splejser til en ny supercomputer p\u00e5 Island. Deroppe g\u00f8r k\u00f8lingen den mere klimarigtig, end hvis den stod p\u00e5 \u00d8sterbro. Den skal efter sigende n\u00e5 fire millioner gigaflops (en gigaflop er en milliard floating point-beregninger pr. sekund).<\/p>\n

Siden jeg forlod DMI i 1994 har verdens 500 kraftigste supercomputere flyttet sig fra gigaflops, over teraflops og petaflops til i \u00e5r at bryde lydmuren med en exaflop. Verdens hurtigste supercomputer kan nu gennemf\u00f8re en milliard gigaflops i sekundet. Og den afspejler en generel, rasende hurtig, eksponentiel udvikling af regnekraft.<\/p>\n

Forskning og flere perspektiver<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Min grundantagelse er, at vores viden vokser, jo mere vi kan regne den ud. Vores matematiske modeller vokser i pr\u00e6cision til fordel for alskens forskning i klima, fysik, materialer, medicin og s\u00e5 videre.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5ske is\u00e6r inden for materialeforskning, hvor man forudser kvantespring med \u00f8get tilgang til regnekraft. Vi kommer til at simulere materialekomposition og fremstillingsprocesser hurtigere og dybere, og n\u00e5r vi afpr\u00f8ver de yderste gr\u00e6nser, kan vi n\u00e5 frem til mere b\u00e6redygtig produktion.<\/p>\n

Produktion flytter stille og roligt over mod ordreproduktion, hvilket \u00f8ger behovet for optimal udnyttelse af forsyningsk\u00e6der. M\u00e5ske kan det forekomme trivielt, men kompleksiteten n\u00e5r man planl\u00e6gger indk\u00f8b, produktion og levering er s\u00e5 h\u00f8j, at netop exaflops bliver n\u00f8dvendige for ramme rigtigt helt nede i detaljerne. B\u00e5de med hensyn til CO2, spild og tidsforbrug.<\/p>\n

Derfor har exaflops ikke kun akademisk interesse. N\u00e5r computerkraften stiger, s\u00e5 \u00f8ger det mulighederne i virksomhederne. N\u00e6ste kapitel i historien kan godt komme til at handle om kvantecomputere, som lover endnu mere regnekraft. I hvert fald er mange etablerede it-leverand\u00f8rer involverede i at forske og udvikle p\u00e5 det omr\u00e5de inklusive SAP.<\/p>\n

M\u00f8rke skyer i horisonten<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Hvis man bes\u00f8ger Top500, der to gange om \u00e5ret offentligg\u00f8r listen over verdens st\u00f8rste supercomputere, s\u00e5 er det, at man aner m\u00f8rke skyer i horisonten. Den givetvis midlertidige verdensrekordholder best\u00e5r af 74 kabinetter og st\u00e5r i Tennessee, hvor den drives af US Department of Energy. USA havde cirka halvdelen af verdens 500 st\u00f8rste supercomputere fra 1994 til omkring 2010. Nu er USA\u2019s andel halveret, og Kina er kommet til og har nu en tredjedel. Klodens fordeling af supercomputere fort\u00e6ller alts\u00e5 ogs\u00e5 historien om, at en periode med USA som verdensledende teknologisk supermagt nu afl\u00f8ses af et duopol med Kina.<\/p>\n

Solskin og demokrati?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

P\u00e5 en pessimistisk dag kan man vel ogs\u00e5 tillade sig at stille sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let, hvad USA har f\u00e5et ud af at besidde den teknologiske f\u00f8rertr\u00f8je. Og hvad menneskeheden har f\u00e5et ud af, at vi bliver bedre og bedre til at knuse store m\u00e6ngder af data og transaktioner.<\/p>\n

B\u00e5de i Kina og i USA vil stopklodserne for reel konkurrence og innovation i sidste ende ogs\u00e5 blive en klods om benet p\u00e5 den teknologiske udvikling. Jeg tror at diktatur og monopol er gift for det sprudlende milj\u00f8, som skal give os morgendagens gennembrud.<\/p>\n

Det er n\u00e6rmest en naturlov, at teknologien udvikler sig, fordi menneskeheden f\u00e5r det til at ske. Men det afg\u00f8rende er, hvordan vi bruger teknologien. Vores fremtid handler om kvalitet og effektivitet i vores politiske og virksomhedernes organisatoriske h\u00e5ndtering af teknologien.<\/p>\n

Hvilken vejrudsigt h\u00e6lder du mest til p\u00e5 verdens vegne? Solskin og innovation i demokratiets tjeneste eller m\u00f8rke skyer af totalit\u00e6r teknologisk dominans?<\/p>\n

Af Thomas Madsen, Head of SAP Data Lab Copenhagen i SAP Experience Center Copenhagen<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Oprindelig publiceret i Computerworld den 20. oktober 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00e5r verden er af lave, m\u00e5 man s\u00f8ge tr\u00f8st i den teknologiske udvikling. Eksempelvis n\u00e5r supercomputere bryder exaflops-lydmuren. Men selv her sniger truende skyer sig…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3000,"featured_media":4348,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4522668],"tags":[5565779,5565781,5565780,5564662],"sapn-display":[5566077,5566075,45149,4579516,60294],"sapn-type":[5563396],"class_list":["post-4347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-teknologi","tag-exaflops","tag-kvantecomputere","tag-supercomputer","tag-thomas-madsen","sapn-display-artikel-hero","sapn-display-artikel-spotlight","sapn-display-homepage-hero","sapn-display-top-stories","sapn-display-hero","sapn-type-artikel"],"yoast_head":"\nVerdens gang og andre exaflops - SAP Danmark Nyheder<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.sap.com\/denmark\/2022\/11\/verdens-gang-og-andre-exaflops\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Verdens gang og andre exaflops\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"N\u00e5r verden er af lave, m\u00e5 man s\u00f8ge tr\u00f8st i den teknologiske udvikling. 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