{"id":6105,"date":"2025-03-31T08:00:41","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T06:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.sap.com\/denmark\/?p=6105"},"modified":"2025-03-28T16:35:43","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T15:35:43","slug":"forudsigelig-uforudsigelighed-forandrer-forsyningskaederne-permanent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.sap.com\/denmark\/2025\/03\/forudsigelig-uforudsigelighed-forandrer-forsyningskaederne-permanent\/","title":{"rendered":"Forudsigelig uforudsigelighed forandrer forsyningsk\u00e6derne permanent"},"content":{"rendered":"

Amerikanske trusler om toldtariffer f\u00e5r international arkitektur til at knirke i fundamentet. Transparens via digitalisering virker nu som en foruds\u00e6tning for robuste forsyningsk\u00e6der i en risikofyldt verden med tiltagende kompliceret regulering. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Varierende st\u00f8tteordninger og skatteregler fra land til land, 70 forskellige CO2-afgiftsregimer og 1850 ESG-relaterede skattebegunstigelser<\/a> p\u00e5 verdensplan er en del af et broget globalt billede, n\u00e5r man skal spille sammen med kunder, partnere, og leverand\u00f8rer i internationale forsyningsk\u00e6der.<\/p>\n

Financial Times skrev for nyligt p\u00e5 lederplads, at multinationale virksomheder skal st\u00f8ve pandemiens krisemanual af p\u00e5 grund af Trump-\u00e6raens usikkerhed, fordi virksomheder skal t\u00e6nke, mens de er i fuldt l\u00f8b. (8\/2 2025). Ganske enig, men vi kan denne gang slet ikke tillade os at l\u00e6gge manualen til side igen og st\u00f8rkne i en ny normal. Vi kan med sikkerhed forudsige fremtidig uforudsigelighed, og det vil \u00e6ndre forsyningsk\u00e6der og samhandel mere permanent end pandemien.<\/p>\n

Det politiske verdensbillede er ekstremt volatilt, og risiko flytter sig geografisk i et hidtil uset h\u00f8jt tempo. Selv uden voldsomme amerikanske udmeldinger er global samhandel i disse \u00e5r pr\u00e6get af uforudsigelighed og hurtige forandringer. Voksende regulatoriske krav, nationale skattelovgivninger og klima-relaterede st\u00f8tteordninger tilf\u00f8rer s\u00e5 mange variable, at kompleksiteten inden for sourcing-beslutninger er voldsomt tiltagende.<\/p>\n

Transparens i realtid<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I en efterh\u00e5nden fjern fortid gjorde klare omkostningshensyn Kina til store dele af verdens fabrik, men nu er off-shoring for l\u00e6ngst afl\u00f8st af near-shoring og friend-shoring. Den problematiske transatlantiske relation medf\u00f8rer nu, at vi ikke kan arbejde efter entydige trends i forsyningsk\u00e6der.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r uforudsigelighed er det eneste, vi kan forudsige med sikkerhed, m\u00e5 vi i stedet bygge et set-up, som er fleksibelt nok til hurtige reaktioner. Vi f\u00e5r brug for transparens i realtid, og for hvert valg vi tr\u00e6ffer, m\u00e5 vi sikre fuldgyldige alternativer og dermed ledelsesm\u00e6ssigt man\u00f8vrerum.<\/p>\n

De globale forsyningsk\u00e6der skal optimeres med data og beslutningsprocessen st\u00f8ttes med AI. I forvejen f\u00e5r vi brug for at have klima-data til r\u00e5dighed for at forst\u00e5 vores samlede klima-aftryk, og denne datam\u00e6ssige infrastruktur kan ogs\u00e5 bruges til kommercielt at optimere globale forsyningsk\u00e6der.<\/p>\n

Sourcing-beslutninger skal have langt bedre kvalitet fremover, fordi prisparameteren skal balanceres med kvalitet, klima, risici, autonomi, regulatoriske forhold og fleksibilitet. P\u00e5 plussiden muligg\u00f8r digitaliserede end-to-end-processer at v\u00e6lge flere forskellige veje p\u00e5 samme tid afh\u00e6ngig af risikoprofil og markedsposition p\u00e5 et givent marked eller i en produktkategori. Vi v\u00e6lger m\u00e5ske off-shoring p\u00e5 et forretningsomr\u00e5de og multi-sourcing p\u00e5 et andet.<\/p>\n

Knyt digitale b\u00e5nd<\/strong><\/h2>\n

En af vejene til at minimere forstyrrelser i forsyningsk\u00e6den er at knytte handelspartnere t\u00e6t til virksomheden i digitale netv\u00e6rk og handelsplatforme. Multi-sourcing med flere kendte og godkendte leverand\u00f8rer p\u00e5 et omr\u00e5de giver \u00f8get robusthed og man\u00f8vrerum. Risikoafd\u00e6kningen har en pris, men vi m\u00e5 optimere gennem effektiv indk\u00f8bs- og leverand\u00f8rstyring.<\/p>\n

N\u00f8gleordene fremover bliver strategisk autonomi, scenarieplanl\u00e6gning, anvendt viden om regulatoriske forhold og samarbejde med konkurrenter og partnere. Omkostningsoptimeringen af en v\u00e6g-til-v\u00e6g-forsyningsk\u00e6de er en kraftanstrengelse rent manuelt, og her er ekstensiv brug af data og avanceret software uomg\u00e6ngelig fremover.<\/p>\n

Tech-sourcing p\u00e5 dagsordenen <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Placering af produktion, forskning og udvikling er nu et varmt emne, fordi protektionistiske tiltag \u00e6ndrer vilk\u00e5rene. Antallet af OECD-lande med skattebegunstigelser p\u00e5 R&D er steget fra nitten i 2000 til 33 ud af 38 i 2023. Skattebegunstigelser kan \u00e6ndre hele kalkulen i et givent forretningsomr\u00e5de, og p\u00e5 linje med beskatning m\u00e5 de indg\u00e5 i sourcing-beslutninger.<\/p>\n

Flere af vores kunder her i Danmark agerer p\u00e5 det globale marked, og de snakker i stadig h\u00f8jere grad om at arbejde sammen med andre europ\u00e6iske koncerner. Det kan v\u00e6re delvise konkurrenter, der deler viden og indsigt for sammen at st\u00e5 st\u00e6rkere. En del virksomheder genbes\u00f8ger desuden valget af internationale it-leverand\u00f8rer, for udover pris, funktionalitet og datapolitiske hensyn er risikoprofil og fleksibilitet i en krigspr\u00e6get tid blevet relevante parametre i valget af hyperscaler.<\/p>\n

En fornuftig tommelfingerregel p\u00e5 tech-omr\u00e5det er for nogen virksomheder, at man prim\u00e6rt k\u00f8ber dansk\/europ\u00e6isk og sekund\u00e6rt amerikansk og at man undg\u00e5r kinesisk. Men de fleste guidelines bliver hurtigt for grovkornede til komplekse globale, logistiske problemstillinger. De vil komme til kort over for en datadrevet, AI-underst\u00f8ttet digital infrastruktur til at h\u00e5ndtere forsyningsk\u00e6derne.<\/p>\n

Af Mikkel Stavnsbo, adm. direkt\u00f8r, SAP Danmark<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Oprindelig publiceret i Finans den 17. marts <\/em>2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amerikanske trusler om toldtariffer f\u00e5r international arkitektur til at knirke i fundamentet. 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