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Covid And Brexit – The Perfect Storm. But How Does Retail Survive It?

Man working at a supermarket restocking the shelves and wearing a facemask - COVID-19 lifestyle concepts

It’s been an incredibly hard time for both retail businesses and customers alike. Forced lockdowns, combined with health anxieties and economic worries do not encourage consumer spend.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that 2020 was the worst year for retail since records began in 1995, with a 0.3% fall in total sales, while sales of non-food in physical shops fell 24% year-on-year as we were all told to stay at home.

Shoppers who are spending in lockdown are mostly doing so online – as the digital convenience trend paved by pureplay titans like Amazon, Uber and Deliveroo has been adopted at speed due to Covid-19 restrictions. These online habits forged during lockdown are here to stay as customers realise how easy and convenient it is to shop from around the world, while sat on their sofa.

But selling purely online comes at a cost to most high-street retailers, not to mention the additional logistics of social distancing at warehouses, combined with stores standing empty for months on end making zero sales. There have already been a few casualties, but our ever-resilient retailers have rose to the challenge and kept our country going through one of the toughest periods in living memory.

And just when we were all getting used to this new way of pandemic life, a little word with the ability to stir up an ever-contentious debate comes barrelling back into our lives at the tail end of last year. Brexit.

The Double Blow

Of course, Brexit never went away. But with a global pandemic to contend with, you’d be forgiven if the transition deadline of 31 January 2020 crept up on us all a little too quickly. Quite simply, the double blow of Covid and Brexit was the perfect storm.

We breathed a sigh of relief as Boris secured a free-trade deal moments before Christmas, but now we’re officially out of the single market there are still many hurdles to jump through with UK customers already complaining about unexpected charges on EU-imported goods. These tariffs also apply to EU customers shopping with UK companies, with headlines suggesting UK products could be abandoned on the continent and burnt if shoppers refuse to pay the tariffs as it is too costly for retailers to facilitate returns.

That’s before we even touch on M&S favourite Percy Pig being held hostage on the Irish border as the sweets are impacted by the ‘rules of origin’. Even Covid-19 vaccines have been dragged into the Brexit argument.

The increase in eCommerce which helped retailers stay afloat over the last year, will be the centre of many of these Brexit-related changes. But what exactly should retailers be keeping an eye on?

What’s the Impact on Retail?

What can we do to Bolster our Businesses?

Navigating our way Towards Calmer Waters

And while 2021 hasn’t exactly been the fresh start we were all hoping for as we navigate our way through Brexit-related red tape during yet another lockdown, there is some hope on the horizon now vaccinations are underway in the UK. In the second half of this year, with retail hopefully open, alongside leisure and hospitality, more people will be on our high streets ready to buy a new outfit for that long-awaited evening out at a restaurant, or (dare we wish for it?) a holiday, injecting money – and life – back into the economy.

More importantly, if the UK can get a solid grip on the Covid-19 crisis this frees up government to spend more time and energy focusing on supporting businesses through the Brexit transitions.

The main thing to remember is the importance of planning and ensuring your Brexit and digital transformation plans are agile enough to quickly pivot when necessary. If 2020 taught us the lesson of resilience, 2021 will be the year of adaptability, and those who will emerge as winners will be the businesses with robust supply chains and complex multi-channel strategies that can communicate effectively with customers at a moment’s notice.

For more guidance please explore the SAP UK & Ireland Brexit Hub.

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